Sunday, November 23, 2008

Analysts v. Technology

So the Global Forecast by American intelligence experts is out.

And I was just checking out the singularity timeline.

Let's see some contrasts:

By 2025, it predicted, “the U.S. will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage,” playing “a prominent role in global events” but not a decisive one as in the past.

The report said the global shift from West to East in terms of wealth and economic power “is without precedent in modern history.” Of a projected population increase of 1.2 billion worldwide by 2025, Western countries would account for only 3 percent, it said.

Nothing that we haven't seen before.

But, take a look at technology changes:

A $1,000 (in 1999 dollars) unit of computation has the computing capacity of approximately 1,000 human brains.
Permanent or removable implants (similar to contact lenses) for the eyes as well as cochlear implants are now used to provide input and output between the human user and the worldwide computing network.


There is almost no human employment in production, agriculture, or transportation. Basic life needs are available for the vast majority of the human race.
There is a growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being “human.”
Although computers routinely pass apparently valid forms of the Turing Test, controversy persists about whether or not machine intelligence equals human intelligence in all of its diversity.
Machines claim to be conscious. These claims are largely accepted.

At this point do you think that people will care whether China or the US is more powerful? Is an all powerful AI going to have a nationality?

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